We (Europe) already did most of the heavy lifting for Ukraine. The US mostly gave old stockpiles of weapons that they would’ve needed to destroy anyway. We are the ones actually paying cash to keep them afloat.
The problem is, in the post-WW2 order, our defense and our defense industry was made dependent on the USA by design. And even up until last November, Europe didn’t want to challenge this arrangement and just went full steam ahead with this arrangement, ordering US made weapons. I think Europe was in denial that Biden could lose or that NATO could ever end.
Only France, and to a limited extent, Sweden and Turkey, have independent defense industries.
In the future, we will have it again. And Ukraine will actually be a key player.
But in the short term, there is no magical button to press that can produce the arms.
Undoing decades of integration isn’t going to be easy.
I mostly agree, but I think the list needs Germany’s excellent Leopard (2) tanks, the modern APC variants and all their industry.
Europe also has a lot of good marine yards that can make Navy vessels and submarines.
And it can drum up drone production in a rapid tempo where needed.
What’s more, European Steel and metallurgy are out of the door of higher grade than the US, Russia and Chinese productions.
This is a boon to produce heavy armor quickly.
So when push comes to shove Europe can no doubt ramp up a unified military industry rapidly, no need for it to take a decade, and keep finances in house.
Another factor that works against the Trump economy if he thoughtlessly pulls the plug on NATO
Indeed, especially during the first Cold War, the US Military Industrial Complex was everywhere. Germany and Japan were forced to buy out dated shit from the Americans. The magical button, tell the US military to shutdown all their European military installations and leave. What would the US MIC do then? I highly doubt they want to lose business.
Putin is going to make a hard move into the baltics during Trump’s first 2 years, including NATO countries. And Europe won’t be able to do shit about it. They need defenses now and European leadership needs to fast track it.
you talk as if Europe doesn’t have agency, or a military.
they do. they have gaps in their capability that have been created by the departure of US. and they no longer have the overwhelming advantage against Russia, but the thing is Russia will still get absolutely smoked.
the only thing that has changed, is it will be a far bloodier fight. Europe and America are both casualty averse. the prospect of things like Bucha Mariupol and Irpin happening in their cities, the population isnt ready for that.
(And to be clear, what happened in those towns and cities were a crime against humanity, after what Russia did there the Ukrainians understood very well this is a genocidal total war, its kill or be killed, and I dont think Europe has understood thats what its going to be.)
Any deal with Trump is no deal at all. He’s the kind of guy that, if you give an inch, starts waving his hands around about how you stole 16 inches from him, and how you must be thrown in a hole somewhere.
Granting him anything is telling him that you are weak and ripe to be exploited.
Yes. USA already knows what its going to do. A hypothetical trade agreement isn’t going to change the decision, so Ukraine should make exactly zero concessions in pursuit of influencing a decision which has already been made.
They’re safer with a deal with guarantees, but Trump doesn’t want to give any, only take the profit. Otherwise it’s a choice between soldiers dying and soldiers dying with profit sharing.
Does anyone else have the feeling that Ukraine is safer with no deal?
Yeah, and the EU should immediately step up, and triplicate support for Ukraine.
We (Europe) already did most of the heavy lifting for Ukraine. The US mostly gave old stockpiles of weapons that they would’ve needed to destroy anyway. We are the ones actually paying cash to keep them afloat.
The problem is, in the post-WW2 order, our defense and our defense industry was made dependent on the USA by design. And even up until last November, Europe didn’t want to challenge this arrangement and just went full steam ahead with this arrangement, ordering US made weapons. I think Europe was in denial that Biden could lose or that NATO could ever end.
Only France, and to a limited extent, Sweden and Turkey, have independent defense industries.
In the future, we will have it again. And Ukraine will actually be a key player.
But in the short term, there is no magical button to press that can produce the arms.
Undoing decades of integration isn’t going to be easy.
You just made all of the points that I was thinking about.
I mostly agree, but I think the list needs Germany’s excellent Leopard (2) tanks, the modern APC variants and all their industry.
Europe also has a lot of good marine yards that can make Navy vessels and submarines.
And it can drum up drone production in a rapid tempo where needed.
What’s more, European Steel and metallurgy are out of the door of higher grade than the US, Russia and Chinese productions. This is a boon to produce heavy armor quickly.
So when push comes to shove Europe can no doubt ramp up a unified military industry rapidly, no need for it to take a decade, and keep finances in house. Another factor that works against the Trump economy if he thoughtlessly pulls the plug on NATO
I do agree, but it does take 3-5 years, unless the EU is willing to turn into a wartime economy. But the political will for that is just not there.
If there will be a serious large-scale attack directly against EU as a whole, the politic will will appear.
Indeed, especially during the first Cold War, the US Military Industrial Complex was everywhere. Germany and Japan were forced to buy out dated shit from the Americans. The magical button, tell the US military to shutdown all their European military installations and leave. What would the US MIC do then? I highly doubt they want to lose business.
Putin is going to make a hard move into the baltics during Trump’s first 2 years, including NATO countries. And Europe won’t be able to do shit about it. They need defenses now and European leadership needs to fast track it.
you talk as if Europe doesn’t have agency, or a military.
they do. they have gaps in their capability that have been created by the departure of US. and they no longer have the overwhelming advantage against Russia, but the thing is Russia will still get absolutely smoked.
the only thing that has changed, is it will be a far bloodier fight. Europe and America are both casualty averse. the prospect of things like Bucha Mariupol and Irpin happening in their cities, the population isnt ready for that.
(And to be clear, what happened in those towns and cities were a crime against humanity, after what Russia did there the Ukrainians understood very well this is a genocidal total war, its kill or be killed, and I dont think Europe has understood thats what its going to be.)
Triple*
Any deal with Trump is no deal at all. He’s the kind of guy that, if you give an inch, starts waving his hands around about how you stole 16 inches from him, and how you must be thrown in a hole somewhere.
Granting him anything is telling him that you are weak and ripe to be exploited.
Just like with any dictator deals are worthless. Putin broke the ceasefire and Trump is breaking trade deals.
Yes. USA already knows what its going to do. A hypothetical trade agreement isn’t going to change the decision, so Ukraine should make exactly zero concessions in pursuit of influencing a decision which has already been made.
Exactly, Trump already decided he was going to surrender. Zelensky knew he wasn’t going to get anything, but it was worth a shot I guess
This guy does (he was there too, sitting next to vance, btw)
A man who, by the way, was fully supported by every single democratic senator.
He was supposed to be the “adult” in the room. They all fear Trump… For some reason, I don’t get it.
trump is a good punishment for power-hungry politician types, too bad that it is at everyone else’s expense.
I’m certain Dr Birx can recommend him a therapist who specializes in sold souls…
They’re safer if they develop nuclear weapons on their own.
Libya and Ukraine convey the same warning to non NATO states. Have nukes or perish.
I’d suspect they’re safer with a deal… but they absolutely shouldn’t honor that deal.
They’re safer with a deal with guarantees, but Trump doesn’t want to give any, only take the profit. Otherwise it’s a choice between soldiers dying and soldiers dying with profit sharing.
All to play for . Join EU. Agree no NATO Putin fucks off.
America frozen.
Not sure how the US would react. Probably war.
They can sign a 50 year deal and stop payment 10 years from now, hopefully thing change for better then.