cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/54245880
The U.S. war with Iran has raised fossil fuel prices so much that the resulting drop in oil demand has put the world on track to see a rare dip in carbon emissions from these sources in 2026.
Between 2019 and 2025, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels grew by about 0.8 percent annually, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change. But 2026 is set to buck that trend: high oil prices, as well as the continued rise of green technology—solar power, wind and electric cars—will cause a “short-term” 0.4 percent drop, according to the study.
“The high petrol prices following the war in Iran are reducing oil use and keeping emissions low,” says the study’s lead author Corinne Le Quéré, a professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia in England. “But that’s not the whole story: The expansion of renewable energy has progressed a lot in recent years, led by China. And [along with electric vehicles], this is offsetting two thirds of the growing demand for energy.”
With all sources of carbon considered, including deforestation, total global CO2 emissions are set to continue increasing.
The only real way to fight climate change is to make fossil fuels more expensive than alternatives. The vast majority won’t do it for environmental reasons.
I’ve always been of the opinion that gas should be more expensive. This idea has been unpopular in pretty much every group I’ve exposed it to.
I’m trying to popularize the term “imagination deficit disorder”.
I don’t get it. I live in Texas and even with the brain dead $300 registration fee tacked on for EVs and the significantly cheaper gas prices compared to the rest of the US, it’s still multiple factors of cheaper to drive an EV.
I bought a 2023 Chevy Bolt EUV. Even with excessive use charges from the electric company and the $300 annual registration spread out over 12 months, I spend around 1/3 to 1/2 of what my Prius cost in gas I had before this vehicle. And that was a PRIUS. I’m also not counting maintenance/repair items that only apply to a gas vehicle, like the head gasket it blew up, or the oil changes, or the coil pack that died in it…
I used 375 kWh last month. My electric rate is $0.075 per kWh until I use more than 400 kWh in a month. Then it goes to $0.096. Even assuming that all of my charging was at the higher rate, that’s $61 for the entire month of driving, if I break out the $300 annual fee across all 12 months. To drive the same ~1500 in my Prius V that got 38MPG on average between city and highway (according to the dash), that cost around $162 per month. And that’s in Texas, where gas is $3.25 a gallon right now. This is essentially worst case scenario for an EV, given all of the things against it, and it’s still barely above 1/3 of the cost.
Imagine someone coming from a fully gas SUV, in a state where gas is more expensive, where the registration fee isn’t 3x of the income of gas taxes, etc. It would blow that person’s mind that, instead of paying $50-60 per fill up one to two times a week, they could drive an EV for that much FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH.
It’s really absurd that we are still subsidizing fossil fuels rather than increasing the tax rates on them.
well france tried that and people rioted. Trump (unintentionally) made gas prices skyrocket and just caused one of the most lopsided elections in modern US history. Asking middle and especially lower class people to pay more for energy, even just in the short term, runs the risk of turning them against eco-conscious legislation.
So I think a better strategy is just more incentives and funding for clean energy.
Yeah, if we could have been building out the renewable energy infrastructure since 2021 like we needed to be doing, then by now it could already be a viable enough alternative that we would be able to end fossil fuel subsidies without too many people feeling the pinch, and even the stragglers would climb on board the green energy express shortly after. At that point it would be time to start ramping up taxes on fossil fuels to disincentivize it for the billionaires who would be insulated from the original price jumps.
But no, fucken Joe Manchin had to side with republicans on blocking the original Green New Deal so that we ended up with a fucking neutered compromise.
So now we have two roads in front of us: we can start building the renewable energy infrastructure and converting the grid. Or we can continue feeling the squeeze tighter and tighter each year until the price of oil is the least of our worries as food and water become scarcer and scarcer.
Choose wisely!
It’s not just about the ones that can’t afford to pay more for the energy, there also usually isn’t a viable alternative available for them to even look at moving toward instead. It’s one thing to make a decision pay more for convenience, if you have another option. If there is no other option, you just feel like you’re getting personally fucked.
In the US, all of the public transit infrastructure outside of like 4 major cities is dogshit. There may be a bus, that doesn’t go everywhere, runs at odd times, and is poorly maintained. Technically available, but if you need to travel across town to work, takes 3 hours one way to do so through 2 different transfer stations. And since everything was built around personal vehicles, things are also not within walking distance even if you are lucky enough to work from home or have something closer.
Having a car is a necessity for most of the country. Without having viable alternatives, increased fuel prices aren’t going to actually fix anything, just turn people even more against any changes.
This is why things like EVs are a good middle ground with the current lack of public infrastructure available nationwide. It’s an easy drop in replacement that’s a better ongoing option, with a side effect of also costing less to maintain along the way.
There usually is an alternative. I watch people richer than me, using more energy, complaining about the costs and how much they are struggling… Just don’t use all that energy then. But they won’t.
But that conversation seems to be impossible. They just say they NEED it. I don’t think they care, even the slightest inconvenience is too much.
Its not just energy, its almost every expense in modern life. Overconsumption won’t bring you happiness, working longer to buy more stuff isn’t going to improve your life.
agreed, and a lot of people have no choice for the fuel used to power their domiciles. If you want solar you have to own your home, not have a restrictive HOA, and have the cash (or credit rating for a decent loan) to fund it.
To be honest, there is a massive difference between prices going up because of taxes and going up because someone started a stupid war and told everyone costs were going down.
I’m not sure I agree, I don’t think most people consider the causes that deeply. That’s how we ended up with trump in the first palce.
Do you think all of the people who flipped blue really care about the war? They certainly didn’t before gas prices went up.
I said they noticed prices first and they probably wouldn’t care about the war otherwise.
Yep, massive expansion of solar, wind, geothermal, tidal and maybe nuclear power for some base load in combination with large amounts of battery capacity is the way to go. General enforcement of electrification is needed. Every instance where hydrocarbons are simply used for their energy content instead of their chemical properties has to be replaced by the grid (outside of emergency measures). I am sure that this would be more than enough to get global emissions under control, and would also lead to more geopolitical stability.
Same thing for subsidizing cow milk instead of taxing it, and making the alternatives be cheaper, because they are.
While I agree, it has to be done very carefully. Like, keep up with inflation with an extra cent or two on top, careful. The cost of petroleum is factored into everything due to transportation, so any change is felt practically everywhere by everyone.
Yes, that’s the point, to get all of those industries to move to renewables instead. I agree it would have to happen slowly, but you could take the money directly from the taxes and ending subsidies on fossil fuels and apply them to subsidies on renewable tech. It wouldn’t take too long before rhe crossover happened.
Canada tried that and voters revolted. Very few people actually give a single fuck about C02 levels.
We still have corporate carbon taxes in effect, for now. I know there were talks about carving out exceptions for certain provinces that were hit hard by them but I haven’t kept up on that thread.
The only green that a lot of people think about is money.
Cut the subsidies they get, and put an environmental tax on its use. The problem is a lot of that will be passed to consumers and it will hit individuals more, so once again large companies won’t notice.
That’s the point though. When they pass the costs on to consumers, we significantly reduce our fossil fuel usage, and actively seek out alternatives.
I’m sure all of the poor people would take the bus if we had any buses.
True enough, if they can change. Not everyone can buy a replacement EV or put up some solar panels, they just have to use the same things they have now at a higher cost. The transition is the issue, and a transition without a way to help those hit hardest will hurt. But you’re right, demand goes down either way.
Sadly we used to have a carbon tax, but we had to appease the morons.
Creating carbon credits didn’t help. Traded like baseball cards, or more often “lost” in the shuffling around of buying more carbon producing time.
Yeah it’s a shame the most effective way used so much violence. It would be nice if we could just protest it away but sadly only the more radical solutions actually work in the end. Luckily we’re all the bigger person so none of us would do the violent thing. Let’s look at our heros for what to do in these situations. All those posters talked about Malcom X at school I wonder what he would do?
Just posting this here for no reason