I don’t think that’s really the case. The 700 000 soldiers will still wreak havoc if they return. They need to be absolutely clear heroes so that the people will accept the havoc, and they won’t be heroes if the Russia loses to anything, in any manner.
I believe the only reason the Russia is doing this is that they believe they can make NATO break that way.
But, it seems likely that the Article 4 discussions for Poland and Estonia will establish a procedure for behaving with further Russian incursions into NATO airspace. Once that’s in place and communicated to the Russia, we can react.
And in all analysis of the Russia, keep this in mind: Putin has never used Internet and is refusing to ever use it. He only accepts information from trusted news sources and his personal aides, all of which are liars. He is extremely strongly out of the loop regarding what’s going on around the Russia, and makes weird assumptions. I don’t think it holds water that this could break NATO, but it is easy to see why Putin would think it will.
It’s not much different than the Kirk shooting. It doesn’t matter what the circumstances actually were. They’re going to use it how they want anyway.
Is it slightly more convenient if NATO actually defends themselves and Ukraine? Sure. Are they going to say the same things no matter what? Absolutely.
Some of that, but Putin can’t afford to loose against Ukraine alone. Getting NATO involved would give him a way of saving face.
I don’t think that’s really the case. The 700 000 soldiers will still wreak havoc if they return. They need to be absolutely clear heroes so that the people will accept the havoc, and they won’t be heroes if the Russia loses to anything, in any manner.
I believe the only reason the Russia is doing this is that they believe they can make NATO break that way.
But, it seems likely that the Article 4 discussions for Poland and Estonia will establish a procedure for behaving with further Russian incursions into NATO airspace. Once that’s in place and communicated to the Russia, we can react.
And in all analysis of the Russia, keep this in mind: Putin has never used Internet and is refusing to ever use it. He only accepts information from trusted news sources and his personal aides, all of which are liars. He is extremely strongly out of the loop regarding what’s going on around the Russia, and makes weird assumptions. I don’t think it holds water that this could break NATO, but it is easy to see why Putin would think it will.
We should give him that.
It’s not much different than the Kirk shooting. It doesn’t matter what the circumstances actually were. They’re going to use it how they want anyway.
Is it slightly more convenient if NATO actually defends themselves and Ukraine? Sure. Are they going to say the same things no matter what? Absolutely.