Harris is borrowing from 'Republican playbook' as she leads Trump in new national poll

Rapidcreek@lemmy.world · 2 months ago

jordanlund@lemmy.world · 2 months ago

So a couple of things…

For those who don’t get that reference, it’s from Penn and Teller’s “Bullshit!” episode on polling:

Now… ALLLLL that being said… Last time I did this, Harris hit 270 exactly. First time this year any candidate hit the magic number.

Plotted on the map:

As usual, PA is a must win. If Harris takes it, that’s it, she doesn’t need anything else.

Failing that, NC or GA + any 1 other state. AZ + NV alone is not enough, that drops her right at 268.

For Trump, he has to win PA to stay in, that gives him 238, from there he needs 32 more. So NC + GA. Or NV + AZ and either NC or GA.

Minimum 1 state for Harris to win, PA. Also a 2 state win of NC or GA + 1 other. Max would be 3 states. AZ, NV + 1 other.

Minimum 3 states for Trump to win (PA, GA, NC), could be as many as 4 of the 5 outstanding (PA, AZ, NV, + GA or NC)

Hylactor@sopuli.xyz · 2 months ago

Can someone further compress this down so my illiterate ass can parse it more easily?

reddwarf@feddit.nl · 2 months ago

Kamala needs 1 state
Trump needs multiple states

All kidding aside, OP did a great job compressing it all in the last 2 paragraphs.

jordanlund@lemmy.world · 2 months ago

Harris has 3 paths to victory, a 1, 2, or 3 state solution.

Trump has 2 paths, a 3 or 4 state solution.

Only 5 states are up for grabs. If Harris loses PA, she has 2 more options.

If Trump wins PA, he still needs 2 to 3 other states.

abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us · 2 months ago

Thank you for the hard work you put into this! This is really encouraging.