The harsh reality is, when people feel like the economy is going well, they tend to support the incumbent, and when they feel it’s bad, they tend to blame the incumbent.

This is one hundred percent true, but let’s not forget: thanks to Biden stepping down we have a situation where Harris has (so far) managed to Jedi Mind Trick everyone into thinking she’s not really attached to Biden but is a fresh, new candidate. It’s uncertain how long the illusion will last, but provided it does it’s possible for her to avoid blame sticking to her the same way.