- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
- politics@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
- politics@lemmy.world
Donald Trump has not received a poll boost in the first presidential election survey conducted since the failed assassination attempt on Saturday.
The poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point on 46 percent, compared to the president’s 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of +/- two percentage points.
As much as I want this to be true (well I’d rather him be losing in all polls), this is disinformation at this moment.
The poll they are referencing is this one: https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling (Archive link)
Under “In this tracker”
Additionally, I don’t see any polls listed out here either that have been able to do a complete poll since the assassination attempt:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
Maybe impartial information more than disinformation. It’s still likely the responses from late Saturday and Sunday would have impacted the percentage by at least 1 or 2 points. The fact it stayed the same hopefully means that at best it simply prevented Biden from taking the lead.
Maybe, but considering this information is highlighted in the poll’s key points (immediately following and under the same point used for the title) doesn’t look good. It means that Newsweek is either doing a poor job at covering this (they didn’t even provide a direct link to the poll), or they are intentionally leaving out key details.
It’s also possible that they are only looking at a subset of the data that only focuses on people that were questioned the day after the event, but without a pro+ subscription I can’t tell if seperating out that group is even possible (if it even lists out which day a person was questioned) and that’s ignoring the impact on the reliability of those numbers given a largely reduced dataset.
In the end, I’m waiting to see what the polls look like in battleground states to see how this event has really affected the situation.
We may never get an accurate poll post-assassination because the RNC quickly followed.
Half of the poll period was in the middle of the news cycle. You’d expect to see at least some movement.