Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 election results says Democrats shouldn't drop Joe Biden - eviltoast

He got 2000 “wrong”… Or did he?

  • lennybird@lemmy.world
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    4 months ago

    lol my guy, you are reaching for some serious straws. If you’re not going off of this data, what ARE you going off, exactly…? Vibes? This is more denial than I can handle.

    He was not telling Biden to drop out the day before the debate. He was telling Biden to drop out the day after,

    Well no fucking shit! That’s called adapting to new information. Any good scientist or analyst does it. When an unprecedented event like THAT debate performance occurs, then yes, that means you must go back and readjust the model. Models only work if they actually factor in the latest information — you get this, right? Have you SEEN the post-debate polling coming out? It’s TERRIBLE:

    Post-Debate: “72 Percent Say Biden Unfit Mentally, Cognitively.”

    Post-Debate: “64% of Independents want Biden replaced on the ballot”; that’s more than they want Trump replaced on the ballot by 1%, by the way.

    Post-Debate: “Undecided voter focus group leans toward Trump after debate”

    Trump tanked two debates against Hillary and still squeaked through on election day. Nobody is going to be thinking about this debate by the time the Olympics are over.

    You live in this magical fairy-tale world where Trump is held to the same standard as Biden when he clearly is not. If voters were as informed as you and me then we wouldn’t have either of these fucking candidates. Neither of those poor debates come remotely close to what we saw yesterday from the person espousing to be the fighter to take on Donald Trump. It doesn’t change the reality reflected in every single piece of data we have in battleground states. Now you can choose to bury your head in the sand and go off vibes if you want, but good luck with that.