Largest study of its kind predicts 85% increase in deaths from the disease in same period as more men live longer

The number of men diagnosed with prostate cancer worldwide is projected to double to 2.9 million a year by 2040, with annual deaths predicted to rise by 85%, according to the largest study of its kind.

Prostate cancer is already a major cause of death and disability, and the most common form of male cancer in more than 100 countries. But with populations ageing and life expectancy rising globally, a new analysis forecasts a dramatic surge in cases and deaths over the next 15 years.

Diagnoses are projected to increase from 1.4m a year in 2020 to 2.9m by 2040, which will mean about 330 men being told they have the disease every hour.

The number of deaths worldwide is predicted to rise by 85% over the 20-year period, from 375,000 in 2020 to almost 700,000 by 2040. The true death toll will probably be higher, experts say, because of underdiagnosis and missing data in low- and middle-income countries.

The findings were published in the Lancet as part of its landmark commission on prostate cancer, and will be presented at the European Association of Urology’s annual congress in Paris on Saturday.