President Joe Biden is opening a new line of attack against former President Donald Trump this week, flipping the script on the classic Reagan-era “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” question to remind voters of life during his predecessor’s tenure.
I think most people are a little better off. They just don’t feel like it, because most people still aren’t doing “well.” I.e. things aren’t getting better fast enough. I looked at real-wage statistics a while back, and that seemed to confirm my beliefs (real wages have been improving across all four quantiles). I have not looked at those living on SSI, SSD, or retirement; and I imagine those people could be worse off.
The current job market is still very tight, unemployment is still very low (despite the Fed). Recent mass layoffs have mostly just been in tech and some white collar jobs, which is a small fraction of the workforce/electorate. The majority of people work “unskilled” jobs and those are still easy to get, and pay a little more in real wages now.
None of this really matters to the electorate though. I’m convinced elections are all vibes-based. And vibes are largely controlled by the media and algorithms. I’ve recently talked to a few people that want Trump to win, and they still parotted the line, “Trump is a business man, so he knows how to get the economy back on track.” They also liked the checks they got during the lockdown. They don’t really follow the news or politics, so all the information they get is incidental. One person recently started to get into red-pill content (Fresh + Fit, Andrew Tate, Jordan Peterson, etc), who I think also discuss political issues in a vibes-based way.
The problem is that while wages have been beating inflation this year, they aren’t beating the last few years. Despite breathless headlines proclaiming so from left leaning sources.
But also the median household tells a different story. Just tracking wage doesn’t tell the whole economic story unless you want to believe every American Human is working a wage job. I do admit it’s my fault for using the word wages. But there’s a reason we track median household and not actual wages to get a general look at the health of the Economy.
I think most people are a little better off. They just don’t feel like it, because most people still aren’t doing “well.” I.e. things aren’t getting better fast enough. I looked at real-wage statistics a while back, and that seemed to confirm my beliefs (real wages have been improving across all four quantiles). I have not looked at those living on SSI, SSD, or retirement; and I imagine those people could be worse off.
The current job market is still very tight, unemployment is still very low (despite the Fed). Recent mass layoffs have mostly just been in tech and some white collar jobs, which is a small fraction of the workforce/electorate. The majority of people work “unskilled” jobs and those are still easy to get, and pay a little more in real wages now.
None of this really matters to the electorate though. I’m convinced elections are all vibes-based. And vibes are largely controlled by the media and algorithms. I’ve recently talked to a few people that want Trump to win, and they still parotted the line, “Trump is a business man, so he knows how to get the economy back on track.” They also liked the checks they got during the lockdown. They don’t really follow the news or politics, so all the information they get is incidental. One person recently started to get into red-pill content (Fresh + Fit, Andrew Tate, Jordan Peterson, etc), who I think also discuss political issues in a vibes-based way.
The problem is that while wages have been beating inflation this year, they aren’t beating the last few years. Despite breathless headlines proclaiming so from left leaning sources.
It appears earnings have been beating inflation since 2014 (with some noise, and a big temporary spike during covid lockdowns). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
Really? Because everyone else disagrees. I wonder what numbers magic they used to make that particular line go up.
Oh look. Reagan redefined CPI and we’ve been getting gaslighted for decades.
But also the median household tells a different story. Just tracking wage doesn’t tell the whole economic story unless you want to believe every American Human is working a wage job. I do admit it’s my fault for using the word wages. But there’s a reason we track median household and not actual wages to get a general look at the health of the Economy.