On Wednesday, Pope Francis arrived in Lisbon to participate in World Youth Day (WYD) and meet with Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.
During a speech at the Belem cultural center, he lamented that the European countries do not offer “creative ways” to end the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The Argentine Pope also stressed the need to respect the original mission of the European Union (EU).
In front of the authorities, diplomatic corps and members of civil society, Francis recalled that the 2007 reform of the European Union states that this integration bloc “has the purpose of promoting peace, its values and the well-being of its peoples.”
The Lisbon Treaty goes further “by stating that in its relations with the rest of the world… it will contribute to peace, security, sustainable development of the planet, solidarity and mutual respect among peoples, free trade and justice, the eradication of poverty, and the protection of human rights,” Francis recalled.
Europe’s original mission was “to open paths for dialogue and inclusion, developing a peace diplomacy that extinguishes conflicts and alleviates tensions, capable of capturing the slightest signs of détente and reading between the most crooked lines,” he added.
Pope Francis then asked Europe, “Where are you sailing, if you do not offer peace processes, creative paths to end the war in Ukraine and so many conflicts that bloody the world?”
The invasion has been such a catastrophic failure that I don’t see how “escalate things again in a few years to come” is even remotely plausible, even if they do get some concession at this point.
I think you seriously underestimate Russia. They have a helluva lot of manpower, natural resources and money. They are also able to import western sanctioned materials via China and Central Asian countries.
Russian society is being organized to resemble a war economy. There are new laws that make drafting more difficult to avoid and with more severe punishments. Also they have just raised the age for conscription. They are playing the long game and preparing for future eg. mobilizing the whole society under one delirious cause. Late 20s, early 30s it is totally possible that Russia has a better military capacity than it currently has. Sure, the life of average Russian will suck way more than it does now, but there’s not really an option if you want to keep your job in a tank factory and avoid going to prison. You have no choice but to participate.
Putin has made his mind and the struggle in Ukraine only makes him more determined that He is fighting an existential battle with the west, especially since he believes that democracies and western liberal lifestyle are on a path of inevitable decline.
Sure, if he is stupid enough He might start a conflict with NATO, believing that the alliance will break when under pressure. He might think that He is prepared and the west is weak. And while there’s 95% change that he is mistaken, it doesn’t matter if he himself believes the crap the yesmen around him and He himself are feeding him. That’s the real risk and to me, a defeat in Ukraine makes this scenario less likely to happen.