Want to wade into the sandy surf of the abyss? Have a sneer percolating in your system but not enough time/energy to make a whole post about it? Go forth and be mid.
Welcome to the Stubsack, your first port of call for learning fresh Awful youāll near-instantly regret.
Any awful.systems sub may be subsneered in this subthread, techtakes or no.
If your sneer seems higher quality than you thought, feel free to cutānāpaste it into its own post ā thereās no quota for posting and the bar really isnāt that high.
The post Xitter web has spawned so many āesotericā right wing freaks, but thereās no appropriate sneer-space for them. Iām talking redscare-ish, reality challenged āculture criticsā who write about everything but understand nothing. Iām talking about reply-guys who make the same 6 tweets about the same 3 subjects. Theyāre inescapable at this point, yet I donāt see them mocked (as much as they should be)
Like, there was one dude a while back who insisted that women couldnāt be surgeons because they didnāt believe in the moon or in stars? I think each and every one of these guys is uniquely fucked up and if I canāt escape them, I would love to sneer at them.
(Credit and/or blame to David Gerard for starting this.)
Thanks for posting this; if you hadnāt, I would have. Piper really doesnāt seem to understand that bubbles form and pop over a span of three to five years. Like, Iām not sure how much charity Iām supposed to give to analyses like:
Pets.com!? Kelsey, even reading a basic article about the dot-com bubble would have saved you embarrassment here. Zitronās analogy is excellent because the bubble is multifactorial and the analogies that we can make are factor-to-factor. Hereās some things that caused the dot-com bubble; people were overly optimistic about:
Compared to all of that, Kelsey, Pets.com was just an Amazon.com experiment. Remember Amazon.com? Did the dot-com bubble kill them? No? Anyway, Pets.com is kind of like the small labs that hover around OpenAI and Anthropic, trying out various little harnesses and adapters on top of their token APIs. Pets.com is like OpenClaw; itās not that important of a player in the overall finances, just an example of how severely the big labs are distorting incentives for small labs.
The uselessness of the products in 2023 directly led to the bad investments in 2024 and the Enron-esque financial deals in 2025, Kelsey. The future is conditioned upon the past, yāknow?
Alleging widespread financial fraud?! How absurd! And to prove just how absurd it is, I will namedrop the infamous financial fraud from the industry full of exactly the same people. Checkmate atheists
Widespread financial fraud which was legitimized and in some cases directly backed by EAs! Surely there are no parallels!
All the legal and regulatory uncertainties make it very hard to talk about the financial viability of chatbots. What do you do if your $20 billion model is shut down forever by court order after it counsels the wrong person into suicide? Piper can overlook this because she is a hack with patrons - to my knowledge, she has never been paid to write by anyone outside the EA world. If she were a working writer who had to deal with chatbots driving up the cost of her website, creating knockoffs of her novels, and competing for editing gigs (let alone someone whose friend had a mental crisis after talking too long with friend computer) she might sound different.
Zitronās populist, conspiratorial tone reminds me of independent investigative reporters from the 1990s and 2000s who also had to find and keep paying readers. Piper just has to persuade one patron at a time that she has propaganda value.
Ed has also been clear there are a few factors that make this bubble worse (for the economy and the general public) than the dotcom bubble. For one, Ed is strongly convinced that GPU lifecycles are much shorter and worse than fiber optic life cycles. You build fiber optic infrastructure and it will last for decades. Meanwhile, GPUs used constantly at max load have life cycles of 3-5 years. The end result of the internet is also much more useful and less of a double-edged sword than the slop generators which churn out propaganda and spam.
Excellent summation!