While the Western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine was clear from the start, the objective has been nebulous. After over a year of fighting, the likely direction of this war is coming into focus.
For the US at this point, though, the war is still in the “let’s tint our profile pictures” phase. There is little direct human exposure, and the military consequences basically amount to queuing up future orders for defence contractors.
One thing that’s been learned from Viet Nam/Iraq/Afghanistan is that it’s a lot less politically toxic to not get to a state where you’re shipping home your own in pine boxes. So the “supply and bankroll from a distance” model can sort of work, at least as a cute little cause to stand behind, as long as Ukranians and willing volunteers from abroad are willing to do the actual dying.
There’s also the other side of the coin-- as much as Russia is cast as the aggressor, why isn’t the Ukranian leadership also culpable for not looking for the fastest deal to end hostilities? Having the Overpromoted Comedian going on world tours and insisting he’ll never give up a square centimetre of land is hardly an open invitation to a negotiation table. At some point, does he cease to be “heroic” and instead become “obstinate” and a net cause of more suffering for his countrymen?
I think there is already a severe economic impact in US, but people aren’t linking it to the war yet. It’s very likely US will be in a recession next year, and that’s when people are going to start getting more rowdy I expect.
Given that the fabled offensive is looking like a complete disaster, it’s not clear what the plan in the west is going to be. I expect things will continue to get worse for Ukraine militarily, an the west is now out of supplies to give. Meanwhile, the economic situation is turning against the west as well.
For the US at this point, though, the war is still in the “let’s tint our profile pictures” phase. There is little direct human exposure, and the military consequences basically amount to queuing up future orders for defence contractors.
One thing that’s been learned from Viet Nam/Iraq/Afghanistan is that it’s a lot less politically toxic to not get to a state where you’re shipping home your own in pine boxes. So the “supply and bankroll from a distance” model can sort of work, at least as a cute little cause to stand behind, as long as Ukranians and willing volunteers from abroad are willing to do the actual dying.
There’s also the other side of the coin-- as much as Russia is cast as the aggressor, why isn’t the Ukranian leadership also culpable for not looking for the fastest deal to end hostilities? Having the Overpromoted Comedian going on world tours and insisting he’ll never give up a square centimetre of land is hardly an open invitation to a negotiation table. At some point, does he cease to be “heroic” and instead become “obstinate” and a net cause of more suffering for his countrymen?
I think there is already a severe economic impact in US, but people aren’t linking it to the war yet. It’s very likely US will be in a recession next year, and that’s when people are going to start getting more rowdy I expect.
Given that the fabled offensive is looking like a complete disaster, it’s not clear what the plan in the west is going to be. I expect things will continue to get worse for Ukraine militarily, an the west is now out of supplies to give. Meanwhile, the economic situation is turning against the west as well.