People look at the big picture in polls(X candidate is leading in polls) and then say they’re wrong when Y candidate wins, but it’s way more nuanced than that.
The 2016 polls were not that far off. Hillary won the popular vote, as the polls predicted. The key states she lost, she lost by small margins within, or not too far from, the margin of error.
If you look at FiveThirtyEight’s final prediction for 2016, Trump had a 28.6% chance of winning. That’s between a 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 chance! But the media narrative was that Trump had 0 chance, and what happened happened.
2016 was the year a whole bunch of people were convinced that “protest voting” was an actual thing and that “both sides are the same so don’t bother voting”. Hopefully a few of those people have learned their lesson.
Umm, 2016 showed us how reliable polls can be
People look at the big picture in polls(X candidate is leading in polls) and then say they’re wrong when Y candidate wins, but it’s way more nuanced than that.
The 2016 polls were not that far off. Hillary won the popular vote, as the polls predicted. The key states she lost, she lost by small margins within, or not too far from, the margin of error.
If you look at FiveThirtyEight’s final prediction for 2016, Trump had a 28.6% chance of winning. That’s between a 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 chance! But the media narrative was that Trump had 0 chance, and what happened happened.
2016 was the year a whole bunch of people were convinced that “protest voting” was an actual thing and that “both sides are the same so don’t bother voting”. Hopefully a few of those people have learned their lesson.
If there’s ANYTHING us Americans are good at, it’s not learning lessons.
Case in point: we Americans!