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Cake day: March 22nd, 2024

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  • I don’t find myself having nearly as many occasions to make use of them as you do, but I do think that all the misplaced AGI hype makes it hard to evaluate the actually technological advancement that LLMs represent. Like, being able to statistically model language to the degree these things do is neat, and I would be more surprised if it wasn’t possible to use that to do some useful and powerful things. But just like how it’s impossible to separate the underlying math of the cryptocurrency sphere from the ideology of technolibertarian griftocracy, everything that the LLM space has produced is poisoned on some level by millenarian technofascism. Like, the degree to which our economy and culture have been warped by these things is entirely a product of the people who think that they’re going to spit out a God that makes whoever does so first king of the world forever. All the actual useful things people are getting from it are around the edges and happening in spite of the demands to remove guardrails and quality checks and human accountability from these systems. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that the underlying mathematics is without value and can’t be part of good and useful systems in the future. Machine Learning as a whole had already demonstrated the value in automated pattern identification and reproduction in a variety of fields from medical diagnostics to pastry sales.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m strongly in favor of throwing out all this bathwater even if there might be a baby in there somewhere. I just think that ā€œhard to evaluate independentlyā€ isn’t necessarily the same thing as ā€œwithout value in other contextsā€.














  • I mean they absolutely do, but nature and economics have their say. Like, you can make money selling homeopathy, because people who falsely believe in homeopathy are a market segment, but you can’t otherwise make money doing homeopathy because it doesn’t work. Similarly you can speculate on anything and come out ahead with the right combination of luck, publicity, and timing, but taking advantage of short-term volatility or noise in the market isn’t the same as actually doing something effective, and the farther away from truth you push the market the more damage it’s going to cause snapping back to reality.