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Cake day: April 17th, 2026

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  • Wouldn’t it be pretty much lights out for the whole country in pretty short order? Almost half of their electricity generation is from natural gas.

    Ukraine should be able to pretty quickly hit all their refineries, fuel, oil, and gas storage, and gas pipeline connections to Russia, and the country just stops functioning. Hit the transformer station at their single NPP and interconnects with Russia and it’s pretty much a complete blackout and not a rolling one either, just no more electricity, period. Unlike Ukraine they can’t be supplied from outside because their only friendly neighbour is already struggling themselves…

    And Lukashenko would know that. No chance in hell he would ever risk that.






  • It doesn’t make much sense to hit the pipelines if the refining infrastructure is broken. In that case they don’t have anything to send through the pipelines anymore anyway.

    For oil yes, of course. But for gas it’s my understanding that it’s processed closer to the extraction sites, so it might not necessarily be in reach (yet). Although it seems like Ukraine just hit a gas processing plant in Orenburg a few days ago.

    If Ukraine can extend their reach to 2500-3000km then they could probably reach most gas processing plants.