Cross-posted from: https://feddit.de/post/9438338
Military pay, ammunition, tanks, planes, and compensation for dead and wounded soldiers, all contribute to the GDP figures. Put simply, the war against Ukraine is now the main driver of Russia’s economic growth.
And it is a war that Russia cannot afford to win. The cost of rebuilding and maintaining security in a conquered Ukraine would be too great, and an isolated Russia could at best hope to become a junior partner entirely dependent on China.
I have a totally different question about currently living in russia. In media we allways hear that protests are being suppressed and a lot of people actually belive what putin says. What is your experience when talking to other people about your opinion? Do you think twice talking about that topic? How many people you know have a opinion like yours?
Great questions, thank you. I’ll try my best to stick to the point and provide answers that don’t span paragraphs. I’ve already been accused of my very typical Russian tendency to write out lengthy sentences here.
I think much more than twice before I indicate my position towards Putin, his government, or the war whenever I’m not talking to people I know I can trust. As important as it feels to “spread the word”, it’s just not safe to be display disloyalty towards the regime: some may tell the police about you (sometimes deliberately exaggerating to cause you more trouble), some may try and fight you, which sometimes ends really bad, and at the same time, sometimes it’s just a very regular, easy conversation where you just share your opinions and go about your business, no harm done.
Sometimes, judging by what the people you’re conversing with say and how they say it, you can tell whether they’re capable of even thinking of doing anything nasty if you disagree and to what degree. It’s still best to not risk it and steer away from that kind of talk with strangers or people you’re not sure about yet.
Like MINE? Probably just me alone, but I’m saying this because the topic itself already encompasses a lot of issues, like the international law, Crimea, decolonization, imperialistic complexes and ideas, patriotism, guilt, various traumas, and many other things. There’s no way two people agree on everything - I’ve met people who are just as anti-war and anti-Putin and pro-west like me, very liberal or left-leaning and all, but can’t even begin to imagine Russia having to pay reparations after the war; there’s more: I personally know a person that wants all of it to end, like no Putin, no war type of attitude, but they seem to have something personal against Ukrainians, as if they actually hate them. It’s very nuanced and complicated.
That being said, if we boil down my opinion to something as practical as “Out with Putin” and “No more war”, then every single person I know would fall into that category: including the people from older generations, the ones that were most affected by the propaganda. Some of them are bitter about it, like they don’t want the war to end with anything less than a total Russian military victory, a complete defeat and conquer of the entire Ukraine; some are much closer to me, thinking that the Russian army should just pack up and leave to the borders that were internationally established in 1991, so Crimea goes back to Ukraine as well…
So, in general, the people who want the war to go on are an actual minority. Everybody is tired of it, but each in their own way. I don’t think anyone has been affected in a positive way, not after 2 full years of this: even pragmatically, we’ve all lost too much in both short- and long-term as a country, and even some of the “luckier” people who maybe got higher wages on their industrial facility because the demand has increased go to the same supermarkets and drug stores as I do, they go to the same hospitals, use the same infrastructure and all that, and they’ve surely suffered the consequences as much as anyone else, and even their (most likely temporary) material gains could never make up for, say, ruined international relationships, maybe ruined personal relationships, maybe dead relatives, and many other things.
Having said all that, I will also tell you this as a bonus: it’s getting harder to disagree. Even the pro-war bloggers (the so called z-bloggers) are now getting the stick treatment for getting out of line; they used to think that they’re the in-crowd and they have the free pass on reporting the real state of affairs, i.e. openly talking about problems, losses, incompetence, etc., but one thing a dictator can’t have you do is steer away from the official line, as that hurts the narratives the propaganda is going for. The irony knows no bounds.
P.S. Still got lengthy and all, my apologies.
That was super interesting, thank you for sharing!
Eh. It’ll probably be mining concessions: Decent jobs with decent wages for Russians, profits for Ukraine, as a bonus Russia gets to learn to run a state budget without resource money, actually develop the economy and everything.
That’s both because it’s something that Russia can pay and because it doesn’t risk revanchism.
Real state of affairs is a very curious thing. Have a look at how Argentine’s dictatorship reported the state of the Falklands war, and what happened after they couldn’t deny any more that a bunch of tea-sipping crumpet munchers handed their asses to them.
Thank you for this very informative post! I’m also a bit curious, how exactly has the typical quality of life degraded due to the sanctions?
I’d say just a lot of inconvenience But I’m a little bit above average
Thank you for sharing that.