Looking for some discussion about a very intriguing concept. Members of this community commonly refer to this concept as MOASS. It doesn’t often get discussed directly, but it looms large behind many discussions.
For posterity’s sake, I’d love to get some discussion about it directly. It’s November 24, 2023. As the future unfolds, I’d like to be able to look back on a discussion like this and see what the thoughts about this idea were at this time.
Here are a couple of questions that might be worthy of discussion.
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What is MOASS?
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What is the probability of this event occurring over what period of time?
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Is it inevitable?
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Is it controversial? If so, why?
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Are many people aware of the idea?
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Of people that are aware of it, there are those that believe that it is a real thing that will happen, and there are those that believe that it is not a real thing that will ever happen. Why do some people believe that it cannot happen?
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Who benefits if MOASS materializes?
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Who does not benefit / who suffers if MOASS materializes?
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Is MOASS potentially an existential threat to some parties? If yes, which parties?
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If MOASS is an existential threat to some parties, and if those parties had an interest in self-preservation, how would they be feeling? How would they be behaving? What actions would they likely be taking in the interest of self-preservation?
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What are some of the implications if/when MOASS materializes?
I have three possible MOASS scenarios in mind:
1 “Nice Gain”: Short interest is as the “experts” and “authorities” report, say 20%. In this scenario, the short bet is simply driven out as GME profitability manifests and 20% of GME holders are able to cash out a nice profit on the squeeze if they want, or just hold onto a good stock for the long term. This wouldn’t really be a MOASS scenario but it’s important to have it as a possible baseline.
2 “Baby MOASS”: Short interest is greater than “experts” and “authorities” report–say closer to 100%. Shareholders are able to sell their shares at pretty ridiculous valuations seen in say, the VW squeeze. Ultimately everything is resolved and many apes make life-changing money.
3 “Global Financial Collapse MOASS”: Through regulatory circumvention and good old fashioned fraud, short interest is several fold the float. Anything above 200% pretty much. In this scenario, most apes feel comfortable selling some shares at life-changing prices, and keeping the rest to see how it goes. In this scenario, the entirety of Western market mechanics are revealed to be fraudulent and every derivative begins to unwind. Fortunes are made and lost in minutes.
Scenario three is exciting but also scary because it’s the all-bets-are-off scenario, where exchanges and other financial entities may be taken over by the government as a matter of national security. Don’t be surprised if courts/politicians/military get involved in very nasty ways to protect the current order of things. They’re not going to let the market sort it out if it becomes a matter of self preservation.
In scenario 3 we may see shares forcefully disgorged at a decreed payout rate because mathematically there is no other way to resolve it other than pleading with the apes to be gracious and sell, but the cabal doesn’t operate that way.