This factors in some feedback loops which most sudies to date have ignored. Note, that it excludes extra warming caused by all the additional water vapour in the air.
For context, studies suggest that the largest extinction event in Earth’s history (so far), the Late Permian Extinction Event, saw temperature rises of around 8°C.
We’re basically on course for infinite warming. By the time anyone decides “maybe we should, like, seriously, try to fix this?”, we’ll be turning into Venus.
That’s 18 degrees F for people who still use that
I hope this paper gets peer reviewed - I want to believe it so bad as I agree with the general ideas (people ignoring feedback loops and other factors which impact the climate as well). Though I do wonder sometimes if there are any remaining negative feedback loops which we aren’t aware of, and might help as CO2 levels worsen. It certainly seems like we’re already aware of all negative loops (the ocean, plant life, rocks?, etc), so we’re really only missing the positive loops
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Hey, at least we won’t be around to find out what happens if you add PFAS, aluminum, microplastics and other nanoparticles into an existing species over multiple generations.
If this is true, we’re fucked.
at a temperature increase of 4 degrees C:
- Sea rise of ~9m, putting 470-760 million at risk
- Frequent and severe extreme droughts
- Mass extinctions, risk of ecosystem collapse
- Food insecurity, regional de-development
- Half of all animal species face local extinction
Huh I guess that Arctic news blog guy was right.
And those climate scientists decades ago. Guess the gamble of it fixing itself didn’t pay off.
Caveat: preprint, not yet peer reviewed.
I think when/if this get peer review, we hold some big sad party about how fk’d we are
So 10° is going to be an ELE? We aren’t going to be here by 2100 are we? Atleast not in the current way we live anyway.
PDF warning next time please.
